Britain may be in for a sweltering few months, as new long-range forecasts suggest above-average temperatures and a higher likelihood of heatwaves throughout summer 2026.
The UK is more likely to experience heatwaves throughout summer 2026
According to the Met Office’s three-month outlook, released at the start of June, the UK is more likely than usual to experience hotter conditions between now and the end of August.
Forecasters say there is an “increased chance of heatwaves and heat-related impacts”, with temperatures expected to remain consistently above seasonal norms.
May had the warmest conditions ever recorded in the UK, with temperatures soaring to 35.1°C
This follows a dramatic end to spring, which saw records tumble across the country. A new UK May temperature high of 35.1°C was recorded at Kew Gardens in London surpassing a record that had stood since 1944 while amber and yellow heat health alerts were issued for the first time this year.
MeteoGroup, which provides data for BBC Weather, has echoed the warning, predicting “significant bursts” of heat and several notable temperature spikes across the UK and Europe. All three summer months – June, July, and August are expected to trend warmer than average.
The Met Office notes that this shift is part of a broader pattern, with hotter summers now twice as likely compared to the 1991–2020 average, reflecting the ongoing impacts of climate change.
Will the UK face drought again?
While confidence is high around rising temperatures, forecasts for rainfall are less clear-cut.
MeteoGroup anticipates a drier-than-average summer, particularly across England and Wales in June and July. In contrast, the Met Office suggests rainfall levels could be closer to average—or even slightly wetter overall.
Recent trends highlight just how uneven UK weather patterns have become. In summer 2025, overall rainfall sat at 84% of the seasonal average, but this masked stark regional differences.
Northern and western areas were wetter than usual, while central, eastern, and southern England saw less than half their expected rainfall.
That imbalance led to widespread drought declarations and hosepipe bans across much of England last year.
Water supply concerns already emerging in the UK
Despite a relatively wet winter helping to stabilise reservoir levels, parts of southern and eastern England have entered summer on shaky ground.
Spring 2026 was exceptionally dry in some areas, with counties including Essex, Suffolk, Cambridgeshire, and Dorset receiving as little as a quarter of their usual rainfall. River levels in parts of England are already falling to “notably” or “exceptionally low” levels.
The recent late-May heatwave offered a glimpse of what could lie ahead. Thames Water reported an extra one billion litres of water used over the bank holiday weekend compared to the same period last year, while around 18,000 homes in the South East experienced supply disruptions due to surging demand.
If further heatwaves develop, similar strain on water infrastructure is likely raising the possibility of restrictions returning if dry conditions persist.
What the Met Office summer 2026 forecasts really mean
easonal forecasts like these are designed to guide planning across sectors such as healthcare, energy, and water management. They rely on large-scale climate patterns rather than day-to-day predictions, meaning they offer a broad picture rather than pinpoint accuracy.
So while the overall signal points towards a warmer summer, that doesn’t rule out cooler spells or periods of unsettled weather.
What is increasingly clear, however, is the direction of travel: hotter summers are becoming more common in the UK, and with them come growing challenges.
